Caveat Emptor, Matt Cassel Trade

Draft Tek gang. I posted this on ArrowheadAddict.com a few days ago. Since it is of general interest, I am cross posting it here.

“I look at Cassel and I think Scott Mitchell,” an unnamed NFC executive told the (Boston) Herald. “That’s who I see.”

My feelings exactly. Anyone thinking that Bill Belichick would do anyone any favors is deluding themselves. To borrow a phrase from the movie Wall Street, he would sell his own mother and send her COD.

Addicts, you keep drinking the Kool-Aid. However, ask yourselves two questions. What QB has come off the bench, had a good year then moved to another team and became a top QB? Scott Mitchell? Matt Schaub? Billy Volek? What QB has moved away from throwing to Randy Moss and done as well elsewhere? Daunte Culpepper?

When I got news of this trade, I was sick to my stomach. Vrabel? fine, we needed veteran leadership on D (and we still need more). Cassel? I am not impressed. Before this is raised in the comments, I am not buying the rumor that Belichick turned down a first-round pick from Tampa Bay. Belichick is ruthless and football is war to him. If a deal looks too good to be true, you better start counting your fingers and toes.

- Merlin, Arrowhead Addict

More on QB Prospects and the NFL Draft

The debate rages on!  Actually, this debate happens nearly every year.  QBs are hot commodities; everyone wants to find the next Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, or John Elway.  In the 2009 Draft we are left with three prospects considered elite and possible first rounders: Matt Stafford (Georgia), Mark Sanchez (USC), and Josh Freeman (Kansas State).  Generally speaking, Stafford and Sanchez are viewed as Top 10 picks – as Draft Tek Correspondent Mike Schottey pointed out here.  However, our model and correspondents seem to disagree on team needs and the talent available compared with other mocks, “experts”, and you, the readers.

2009 Miami Dolphins Draft Preview

The Dolphins, despite one of the greatest turnarounds in NFL history, were a bit overshadowed in 2009.  Apparently winning 10 more games than the previous season – something only one other team, the 1999 Colts, has done – and taking the AFC East crown isn’t as important or noticeable as a vastly overrated Brett Favre in New York or rookie QB’s (Matt Ryan of Atlanta and Joe Flacco of Baltimore) bringing their franchises to respectability.  Oh well.  No harm, no foul I guess.  But this remarkable turnaround has created an interesting dilemma for a Dolphins franchise getting ready to enter Year 2 of the Parcells-Ireland-Sparano regime.  Miami vastly improved in 2008 but was aided by some luck, as pointed out here.  Part of that luck – the easy schedule – will change in 2009.  While it’s almost impossible at this point to predict what teams will and won’t be good next season it’s pretty obvious that a slate of games containing Houston (a team Miami has never defeated), Indianapolis (‘08 playoff team), Pittsburgh (Super Bowl Champs?), New Orleans (crazy offense), Tampa Bay (stout defense), Jacksonville (‘08 underachievers), Tennessee (stout defense II), San Diego (better than their ‘08 record), Atlanta (up-and-comers), and Carolina (‘08 playoff team) is more difficult than facing each conference’s West Division (even though Arizona made the Super Bowl).  Does Miami have the talent to repeat their 2008 season in ‘09?  As of now I say no, and it all comes back to personnel.

DraftSim program – New P code?

Drafttek.com lead programmer Warren Hauck here.  Pondering a new “P code”.  To review some existing codes and their meanings:

If one of our correspondents codes a position as P2, that means:

2 (or P2) – PP’s designated with P2 indicate that the that the team is in great need of starting calliber talent and will reach to fill the need. The reach isn’t quite as great as P1. There can be multiple P2’s identified per team.

A P3 OTOH means:

3 (P3) – PP’s (Player Positions) designated with P3 indicate that the team is in need of starting caliber talent, but will not reach for it. Some teams use a “best available player” draft discipline, this fits the P3 code well.

Scott Pioli Reaction

Thanks to all the nice notes on joining Draft Tek as your Chief’s correspondent. I just posted this entry on Arrowhead Addict. Since it covers the big news regarding the hiring of Scott Pioli, I believe it will be of interest to the more diverse community here. Specifically, I am curious about the reaction of the Patriot fans. The entry is reproduced below, in it’s entirety.  

I planned on posting the first half of my team review this week. However, I will delay that for a week to discuss the hiring of Scott Pioli. Obviously, he has a fine resume. However, his hiring left me with mixed feelings. Looking at the Patriot organization, it’s hard to figure out where Bellichick ends and anyone else begins. To call his coaching offspring underwhelming is generous. Dimitroff did a fine job in Atlanta. However, he hit the lottery with Turner and Ryan. The jury is out if he can make excellent decisions consistently. If anyone else deserves a large share of credit for the Patriot success it is Scott Pioli. Now, he gets the big chair in KC. All the credit/blame will starts with him. I am cautiously optimistic on Scott Pioli.

In his press conference, he reminded me of Bill Parcells, without the arrogance. He really didn’t say much. The biggest piece of information I gleaned was that he was going to work under his own time frame. That’s always a nice thing to say. However, life goes on and decisions on the fate of Herm Edwards, the coaching staff and scouting departments need to be made fairly quickly. Scott did make some very positive statements about Herm Edwards. I imagine that these statements provoked a spike in the traffic to the KC area suicide prevention lines. Let’s step back a bit from the brink here. First of all, I am mixed on Herm Edwards. He has his strong points and his weak points. So, I am not firmly in either camp. These statements from Scott Pioli may be very political in nature. Put yourself in his shoes. You are coming into a job where your existing Head Coach is popular with his players. You do not trash that coach publicly. You say nice things about him. He is given the chance to interview to keep his job. Then, if you fire him, the players feel like Herm was given a chance. Can Herm stay on as Head Coach? If Scott Pioli says he can, then he can. If you want to create a team/family culture, you do not walk in, whack the popular Head Coach and start singing ‘We are Family’. Let’s see how this whole thing plays out. Personally, I would go get Steve Spaguolo if I could.

Merlin

Exceeding Expectations – The 2008 Miami Dolphins

It’s become commonplace to state this recently, but it bears mentioning here too: the Miami Dolphins control their own destiny.  Win their next three games (vs San Francisco, @ Kansas City, @ NY Jets) and the Dolphins – yes, the Dolphins – will win the AFC East.  It would be their first playoff appearance since the 2001 season, when they lost a Wild Card matchup against the Baltimore Ravens.

The Fit Club: The Tekkie Awards – Part 1

Scott Lilliston – Senior Writer:  November 23, 2008

So, hot shot, you’re coming down the stretch of your fantasy football league and you’re sitting pretty.  If you’re thinking…”how’d I get here?” then don’t move too suddenly because you don’t want that horseshoe to fall out of your rear end.  If you’re thinking..”time to bring home another trophy!” then you may have some insight into how to construct a monster fantasy football team…or you started a league with the over-70 crowd from your local canasta club.

We’ll hand out some “Prince Awards” for some of this years fantasy heroes.  These are guys who may not have looked the part going in but managed to score on every field with a pulse.  We’ll also hand out some “Fabio Awards” for guys who looked like world beaters but in the end should have just been smacked in the face with a pidgeon. 

So…with humble regards…I submit to you, the First Installment of…The Tekkie Awards!

 

Simulating the NFL Draft – 4-3 vs. 3-4

Draft Tek’s NFL Draft computer simulation model now enters its 4th season.  The 2009 version is still under construction; we’re still employing the 2008 logic to generate the Consensus Mock Drafts that are currently up on the web site.

One of the chief complaints that we’ve heard ever since year 1 involves 3-4 vs. 4-3 players: Nose Tackles, Pass-rush linebackers, etc..  The program needs a means of categorizing DL players, identifying teams by their base defenses, and assigning as such.  The goal of Draft Tek programmers is to integrate this logic into the 2009 model, effective at the completion of this regular NFL season.

This will involve an expansion of player definitions.   Intead of DT, DE and OLB; we’ll see 34DT, 43DT, 34DE, 43DE, 34OLB and 43OLB.    And we’ll see some of the target players taking on dual designations.  

In an effort to gain clarity for programming purposes, the following questions were posed to our Draft Tek Football Analysts:

1) A 4-3 DE may or may not qualify as a 3-4 OLB – depends upon
size/speed. Is this an accurate assessment??
2) A 4-3 DT may or may not be suitable for a NT position (3-4 DT) -
depends upon player makeup. – Correct?
3) Consider the opposite – A Nose Tackle is acceptable for a 4-3 DT.
Yes/No?

Dolphins Update #16

I was a bit under-the-weather the last week so I missed my Monday and Friday posts.  I don’t feel much better today, but for a different reason.  The Dolphins played mediocre and uninspiring football for the second straight week and now sit at 2-4.  The wins against the Patriots and Chargers appear so far in the past I can’t even see them.

Dolphins Update #15

Another fall work week is almost in the books and that means one thing: lots of football soon!  High school, college, and professional.  If you’ve missed what happened in Miami Dolphins football this week, continue reading.  Enlightenment awaits!