Schottey’s Sleepers v 1.0

-Michael Schottey: Senior Writer/Lions, Packers, Chargers correspondent

Happy Friday Tekkies! Welcome to the first installment of a new feature called Schottey’s sleepers. Each update will provide names you should be looking out for in the middle to late rounds of the draft. As always I love feedback and if you feel I have left a great prospect off a list, you let me know and I will do the research on him.

The list is divided up by position and I list them as Names You Know–These are guys that are a given, if you don’t know these people you may be on the wrong site…TMZ is that way. Names You Should Get To Know–These are prospects that will go in the early to middle rounds but probably don’t have the exposure they should. Spotlight–I will spotlight a prospect every article. Normally, it will be a middle to late rounder. Occasionally, it will be a higher round guy who isn’t getting pub. On to the QBs…

More on QB Prospects and the NFL Draft

The debate rages on!  Actually, this debate happens nearly every year.  QBs are hot commodities; everyone wants to find the next Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, or John Elway.  In the 2009 Draft we are left with three prospects considered elite and possible first rounders: Matt Stafford (Georgia), Mark Sanchez (USC), and Josh Freeman (Kansas State).  Generally speaking, Stafford and Sanchez are viewed as Top 10 picks – as Draft Tek Correspondent Mike Schottey pointed out here.  However, our model and correspondents seem to disagree on team needs and the talent available compared with other mocks, “experts”, and you, the readers.

Chief’s Needs

I wrote this article for NFLMocks.com. It is a nice overview of Chief’s needs. So, I thought I would share it with DraftTex readers. Feel free to email or post comments.

Positional Needs: DE, MLB, C, T, QB, OLB

The Chiefs had a rough two win season that resulted in the departure of long-time President/CEO/King Carl Peterson and Head Coach Herm Edwards. Highly rated GM Scott Pioli was brought in from New England to take over.

To the casual observer, going from a four win season in 2007 to a two win season in 2008 it would appear that the Chiefs are trending downwards. However, the opposite is the case as the 2008 draft brought in several talented youngsters like Branden Albert, Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr and Glenn Dorsey. The good news is that much of the foundation has been laid. The bad news is that quite a bit more work needs to be done for the Chiefs to be a contender.

With the #2 Pick in the 2009 NFL Draft

All this talk about Quarterbacks has gotten me thinking about my teams choice at #2 overall in the upcoming draft.  My opinion is simple: Control the lines and you control the game.  The Rams lines have been horrible over the past few years and it has shown in their performance.

That being said, the best overall talent in the draft is an Offensive Tackle, Andre Smith out of Alabama.  Let’s assume for argument’s sake that Detroit grabs him #1 overall.  This leaves some huge questions for the Rams at #2 who have dire need at OT, ILB, WR, CB and QB.  Let’s break down each position and I’ll give my take on where the Rams should go with the pick if Andre Smith is off the board.

2009 Miami Dolphins Draft Preview

The Dolphins, despite one of the greatest turnarounds in NFL history, were a bit overshadowed in 2009.  Apparently winning 10 more games than the previous season – something only one other team, the 1999 Colts, has done – and taking the AFC East crown isn’t as important or noticeable as a vastly overrated Brett Favre in New York or rookie QB’s (Matt Ryan of Atlanta and Joe Flacco of Baltimore) bringing their franchises to respectability.  Oh well.  No harm, no foul I guess.  But this remarkable turnaround has created an interesting dilemma for a Dolphins franchise getting ready to enter Year 2 of the Parcells-Ireland-Sparano regime.  Miami vastly improved in 2008 but was aided by some luck, as pointed out here.  Part of that luck – the easy schedule – will change in 2009.  While it’s almost impossible at this point to predict what teams will and won’t be good next season it’s pretty obvious that a slate of games containing Houston (a team Miami has never defeated), Indianapolis (‘08 playoff team), Pittsburgh (Super Bowl Champs?), New Orleans (crazy offense), Tampa Bay (stout defense), Jacksonville (‘08 underachievers), Tennessee (stout defense II), San Diego (better than their ‘08 record), Atlanta (up-and-comers), and Carolina (‘08 playoff team) is more difficult than facing each conference’s West Division (even though Arizona made the Super Bowl).  Does Miami have the talent to repeat their 2008 season in ‘09?  As of now I say no, and it all comes back to personnel.

DraftSim program – New P code?

Drafttek.com lead programmer Warren Hauck here.  Pondering a new “P code”.  To review some existing codes and their meanings:

If one of our correspondents codes a position as P2, that means:

2 (or P2) – PP’s designated with P2 indicate that the that the team is in great need of starting calliber talent and will reach to fill the need. The reach isn’t quite as great as P1. There can be multiple P2’s identified per team.

A P3 OTOH means:

3 (P3) – PP’s (Player Positions) designated with P3 indicate that the team is in need of starting caliber talent, but will not reach for it. Some teams use a “best available player” draft discipline, this fits the P3 code well.

Consensus Mock Draft Rev 3 – Staff Comments

Post-Season Revision 3 was released on Saturday. In case you were not aware, the Consensus Mock is computer generated based on two inputs. First, the positional priorities assigned for each team by our contingent of team analysts. Second, the players rankings on the Big Board.

A couple interesting notes on our Consensus mock:

1) Where are the offensive skill players??   QB, RB and WR.   Michael Crabtree is in there at #4 going to Seattle. But whose next? It’s Jeremy Maclin at #16.

First 2009 Draft Sim of the Season

It’s October and its time for The World Series Draft Teks Kickoff coverage of the 2009 NFL draft.

Our first effort has just been posted up over on the main site.  Won’t get into team needs and player rankings just yet.  This posting discusses our In-season timeline and other guidelines that simulations will follow until the NFL season is over.

What’s that?  You don’t like where your team is ranked ??   Our Sim sucks?   Kansas City is just fine at QB ??

If only there was some manner to make changes to the simulation’s inputs and then generate a new mock draft based upon those changes . . . . 

Online Draft Simulator (ODS) Beta Kickoff

What is the ODS?

The Online Draft Simulator provides a totally unique experience for Draft buffs and NFL/NCAA fans in general.  The ODS takes the Computer generated draft simulator, the results of which have been Draft Tek’s forte over the past few years, and puts it online for fans and football professionals to use for draft analysis.

The beta version of ODS is a scaled-down version of our Excel-VBA model, which never had a name or acronym.  But I will use DTOM (Draft Tek Offline Model) for the purpose of blog discussion.  Here are differences and similarities between ODS and DTOM:

 

Comparing the ODS and the “classic” Draft Tek Excel-based model (DTOM)

1) DTOM goes the full 7 rounds, ODS only 3 (in the early versions)

The Fit Club; One Freak, One Game Cock, Taming a Tiger and a 3-pack of Trojans

To quote the immortal Michael Buffer, who by the way has to have the greatest job on the planet – next to mine of course *ahem*…………..”Are you ready to rumble?!?!”

The seasons are upon us, folks, and the first saturday of college pigskin is in the books.  After my better half pried me from the recliner last evening I started thinking…how can people (or computer systems for that matter) tell us who the better team is on any given Sunday?  Isn’t that why we watch the games? 

I documented the first big Saturday of the year and noted the highlights from the week in college football, the underachievers, the future stars and some funny names. 

10:50am – I wake up from friday night’s re-donk-u-larity and still smell like baby wipes, hops and junior mints…don’t ask.

10:52am – Holy schnikes!!  LSU/App St is on early due to the potential for Hurricane Gustav to manipulate the area causing evacuation.  (on a serious note – Drafttek prayers are with you, Gulf of Mexico residents) and I am wondering if App State is going to slay another giant to lead off a season.

11:05am – bag of pretzels, the easy chair and a hair of the dog. 

11:38am – Mystery solved.

11:40am – Yard work!!

12:00pm – Virginia Tech/ECU is on!!!  “But honey, I might have to write about this tomorrow!”  Enjoy the couch tonight, dear.”

I wanted to see a couple of things out of this game.  I wanted to see who ECU would replace the BLAZING fast Chris Johnson with; he who was drafted in the first round by the Tennessee Titans in April.  Looks like it’s running back by committee at ECU.  Senior, Brandon Simmons and Sophomore, Jonathan Williams got it done yesterday but we’ll call it a push as far as future draft prospects.  In the meantime, look out for 6 foot, 198 lb, sophomore WR, Dwayne Harris who caught 4 for 68 yards and ran the ball 3 times for 32 yards.  I also wanted to see who VT would be installing in their linebacking corp and to see if RB, Kenny Lewis was ready to take the full load.

12:25pm - A scoring update shows me footage of what appears to be a cross between a gazzelle, a tiger, a bat and a rhinocerous, ALL wrapped in Bigfoot’s body, clad in red and white, sprinting into an endzone.  I’m told it’s Ohio State Buckeye freshman sensation, Terrelle Pryor.   

12:26pm – Basically, there’s little to report from the LB’s.  Kenny Lewis looked tentative and did not show well as a receiver out of the backfield. 

The real news in Blacksburg is that Sean Glennon is NOT the answer at QB for the Hokies.  Not even close.  14/23, for 139 yards and two picks is not a line I want from a my starting QB of my number 17 ranked team in the country.  Especially against the likes of ECU.  Don’t get me wrong, ECU is a better team than many give them credit and plays defense…but please.

1:30pm – I go back and watch the Thursday night, South Carolina/NC State game.  I watched the whole thing…mainly because I couldn’t believe how wretched NC State looked, but partly because I dropped the remote in the floor and couldn’t reach it.  HEY!  Don’t judge me!  The dog was lazy too for not bringing it to me when I asked!

I initially considered that maybe this game was one of those anomaly games, like you just shouldn’t factor it into anything.  One of those bizzarro, off-the-grid, games that should just be locked into the vault because neither team was worth the elastic their own jocks were made from.  But then I realized that maybe, just maybe, the Gamecocks might be dangerous this year. 

Scribble it down now, South Carolina’s defense is great.  Not just good, great.  Consider this…South Carolina QB’s tossed 4 picks (all by sophomore Tommy Beecher) and NOT ONE Gamecock Wide Receiver had 50 yards catching the ball, yet NC State didn’t score a point.  Let me repeat…NC State got 4 turnovers and a pitiful day in the passing game from an uncharacteristic Spurrier team…and DIDN’T SCORE A POINT!  Beware SEC.  When Ryan Succop (pronounced SUCK-up…and no I’m not making that up…I couldn’t make up the fact that the kid hasn’t realized that you can legally change your name in this country) knocked through the last PAT, I realized that the Gamecocks are only a mediocre offense away from making serious noise in the SEC.  Look out for Succop in the next couple drafts, too.  He’s 6′3, 224 and is a heck of a kicker…even if he is a…you know what?…I’m gonna take the high road.

3:30pm – UVA/USC time!  I heard an interesting bet on this game, and I heard it 3 months ago over happy hour beverages and beer nuts.  A buddy of mine, a long-time Virginia Tech Fan tells another buddy of mine, a long-time UVA fan ”opening day, USC will beat you guys by 6 touchdowns.”  “SIX!?” I say.  My UVA fan pal says, ”are you going to give me 6 touchdowns?!?”  My clearly buzzed pal says “Hell, I’ll give you 42 and a half!  What’s the bet?”  UVA pal says “One dollar.”

3:58pm – 42 and half might have been a sucker bet. 

4:00pm – Rey Maualuga, Mark Sanchez and Clay Matthews are going to be playing on Sundays, and soon.  Maualuga roams the field and stalks RB’s, TE’s, lead blockers like he’s enjoying the warp-speed collisions he’s inducing.  Watching him on the sideline after the game was well-in-hand, he looked like he was a little sour that he wasn’t still in there cracking heads.  Can anyone say “Butkus?”  USC by 45 in a whitewash.  Enjoy that dollar! 

7:30pm – Dinner!!  Woot!  Hey!…where’s my quesadilla?  “Outside with the yard work.”, she says.  Even the dog looks at me while he’s eating his milk bone and I can tell he’s thinking…”if this fool reaches for my milk bone…I’m biting his lazy, no good, no yard-work doing arse.”

7:35pm – Yeah, can I get some fire sauce with that?  “Thank you, drive through.”

8:00pm – Alabama/Clemson!!  Clemson is ranked #9 and the Tide a mere #24.  What gives?  Alabama has a talented senior QB, a stout defense (even if they are young) and a good running game.  Why are they so far down the list? 

8:35pm – They don’t know either…The Tide is showing Clemson the definition of underrated. 

9:05pm – It’s out of hand.  John Parker-Wilson is putting on a clinic of how to manage a game without having to be the star.  I don’t think he will have the physical gifts to be playing on Sunday, but he’s a heck of a QB.  Stash this one away as well, Clemson’s CJ Spiller is going to be wearing the NFL shield soon, also.  His 96 yard kickoff return is about as phenomenal a college play as you’ll ever see.

9:30pm - Re-run of Dazed and Confused….”Alright, alright, alright!  That’s why I love those high-school girls..”  Seriously, has there ever been a movie character cooler than Wooderson?  The couch is heaven. 

11:00pm – Dreams of the gazzelle-like, wildabeast falling in the draft to my favorite team.  

11:05pm - The dog…licking my face.  Apparently, I’m on his bed. 

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