Why Maclin won’t be the Raiders pick at #7

Three words: Johnnie Lee Higgins

I know it seems like the sexy idea – hey Al Davis loves speed (true to a fault), Crabtree will be off the board, Raiders need a #1 WR – so Maclin HAS to be the pick. I’m sorry Pat Kirwan, Charles Davis, Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and the vast vast majority of mock drafts I have seen lately. If anyone out there is doubting the usefulness or relevancy of drafttek’s system – here is a shining example – but I digress.

The Oakland roster has a receiver with blazing speed and big play capability, his name as previously stated is Johnnie Lee Higgins (JLH). JLH was picked up to not only catch the deep bomb from J.Russ but also for his return potential. After a dissapointing year in which he was benched in favor of Tim Dwight, he was finally given an opportunity to develop. Last year he finally hit his stride, returning punts and showing a knack for being dangerous in open space. The Raiders also added SS Tyvon Branch, who before becoming injured, showed great potential as the Raiders kickoff return. Though Branch is a rookie, Tom Cable recently talked up his return ability as a vital part of the kick return team. The Raiders also recently re-signed Justin Miller, a pro-bowl alternate kick returner – he was the special teams player of the month for December, and really helped the Raiders provide a legitimate threat in the return game after Branch went down.

I just cant see the Raiders spending the 7th overall pick in the draft on a player that they already have. Maclin offers little in terms of variety to the Raiders roster. And even if Al has dreams of two speedsters, streaking down the sidelines in identical form, I sincerely doubt he would waste the #7 pick on making that happen – unless Al sees something special in Maclin, and I really don’t (no offense kid). I’ve asked Warren to lockout Maclin for the Raiders, and until I see or hear otherwise, that’s the way it’s got to be. Think otherwise – just let me know!

Tim – YOUR Raiders Team Needs Correspondent

Examining the Lions’/Seahawks’ Trade

-Michael Schottey– Lions Correspondent

• Lions get: Julian Peterson
• Seahawks get: Cory Redding/5th Round Draft Pick

Pros for the Lions:

Peterson is an all-pro caliber LB (as recent as ‘07). He is a defensive leader with ties to the area (Michigan State alum) and is a avid charitable contributor. At only 30 he should have 4-5 years of decent football left and is not an injury risk.

Negatives for the Lions:

Cory Redding was the best of a weak Lions’ DT group which needs instant impact this offseason. Peterson is a few years older and the Lions’ take a big cap hit.

Conclusion:

I like the trade. Redding was a non-factor and was grossly overpaid for being an average run-stopping undertackle. If Peterson does not contribute at a high level, the Lions would not take a hit cutting him in the next few years (as non of his money is guarenteed) This is a stark contrast from the Millen era when Redding was one of our most prized prospects.

This trade is officially a wash until the respective teams finish off their rosters. If the Lions can find a decent DT their defense could look a lot different from the roarless attrocity last year.

Rams 2009 Draft Preview

The Rams have arguably the worst overall team in the NFL talent-wise at this very moment.  Torry Holt and Orlando Pace are gone as are Drew Bennett, Corey Chavous, Samkon Gado, Trent Green and Brett Romberg.  Additions include Jason Brown, James Butler and Michael Karney.  The needs are many and with the exception of Center and Safety, have only gotten worse in the offseason.  Let’s look at what the Rams need to do in the draft to start turning things around.

Offense: The Rams offense was ranked 27th in yards and 31st in points.   Needs on the Rams offense are great, but not rampant.  Really what they need is a #1 WR, starting OT and a future starter quality rookie QB.  Adding additional depth at OT and WR is also an important thing to keep in mind.

Quarterback: The Rams have a starter, Marc Bulger, who has been hammered game in and game out over the past 3 seasons.  There is a desperate need here for a young solid backup with potential to become the starter in 3 years.  Right now our sim has Josh Freeman there with the Rams 3rd pick, more likely a Graham Harrell or Hunter Cantwell later on.

Wide Receiver: Can anyone name the Rams #4 wide receiver?  Yes, it’s that bad.  Donnie Avery, Keenan Burton and Derek Stanley are the only Rams with any NFL experience.  The need here is huge.  I believe if Aaron Curry is off the board at #2 the need is great enough to take Michael Crabtree and hope the Tackle depth lasts into round 2.  Taking another WR late from a smaller school would also be a good idea.

Offensive Tackle: Gone is Orlando Pace, of course most Rams fans would tell you he’s been gone the past 3 years.  Alex Barron has proven nothing after being the Rams 1st round selection in 2005.  John Greco would be the starting RT if the season started today.  Neither would have a backup.  This is undoubtedly the biggest need for the Rams.  The entire offense has suffered the past 2 seasons because of protection and blocking issues.  Adding Jacob Bell and Jason Brown helps, but the Rams need a Tackle now and a project to develop later.  Jason Smith might be the answer at #2 but unless Curry or Crabtree prove to be less than advertised I say wait for round 2 and try to get Britton or Beatty, then grab another OT late that has the size and athleticism but hasn’t learned yet how to use it.

Defense: The Rams ranked 28th in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed.  The Rams defense has definite needs, but even more it has no depth.  The need is to upgrade starters and provide depth.  A leader is needed more than anything, a guy that everyone can count on to call the plays and make the plays.  Let’s look at it by position.

Defensive Tackle: The Rams will need to replace L’Roi Glover at starter, Clifton Ryan is probably not the long term solution.  The Rams have 3 needs greater than DT so likely the 3rd round is as soon as you will see one taken. 

Defensive End: Another strong need for a starter quality guy as Leonard Little is not going to stay around forever.  Either a stand up rush linebacker or a legit DE will need to be taken likely in the middle rounds to develop.  I love Jarron Gilbert in Round 3 if he’s available.

Inside Linebacker: This is the leader position on defense that the Rams need desperately.  There are 3 legitimate stud leaders in this draft, passing up Aaron Curry in round 1 or James Laurinaitis if available in round 2 would be a mistake in my opinion.  Get the leader in place and the cogs will move better as a whole. 

Cornerback/Safety: These are getting lumped together as the Rams have depth and value needs at both positions, but in their position a true difference maker will not be available as the needs at other positions is greater.  I’d be surprised if the Rams took a corner or safety before round 4.

Summary: I’ve been trying to tweak the needs to get the draft as close to what I believe the Rams need and the current staffs philosophy come together.  The latest sim (3/13 revision #25) is the first I’m happy with.  Let’s look it over quickly to help summarize:

#2 Michael Crabtree: Aaron Curry is gone so this is the next best player available and it ia a desperate need position as well.  I wouldn’t be upset if they went Jason Smith here.

#35 William Beatty: A big, strong starting caliber OT that makes the selection of Crabtree look like pure genious.  Obviously it would make a Curry selection look good too.  The OT depth is staggering this year.

#66 Josh Freeman: This is a fantasy pick.  No way Freeman lasts this long. I’ll be realistic and toss out Jarron Gilbert, Sen’Derrick Marks or Darry Beckwith with this pick.

#99 Jonathan Casillas: Hopefully can play DE, if Gilbert is taken at #66 look for a QB, DT or CB in this spot.

#130 David Veikune: I love this pick, but if Jason Phillips of TCU is still around and Aaron Curry isn’t the #2 pick he’s a steal here.

#163 Christopher Owens: Any serviceable CB or WR would be good here.  If a QB hasn’t been selected yet now might be the time.

#195 Jahi-Word Daniels: Ditto, CB/WR/QB is good here.  I like Graham Harrell with this pick if he falls this far, also a project OT might be nice.

Overall: A good draft with many needs filled.  Look for the Rams to be younger, hungrier and more aggressive both on offense and defense with Steve Spagnuolo and company on board.  Give me the Rams and at least 5 wins in 2009-10. 

Robert Occhipinti – Rams Drafttek Correspondent

Online Draft Simulator – User Guide 1

As draft interest draws near, so does usage of Draftteks innovative ODS .    For those of you regular users, we’re going to prepare some short bites every few days on how to use the ODS in preparation for draft day.

Today:  Using baseline ODS data vs. using your own changes

Today (3/13) we collected new team needs from out Team Correspondents and put up a new Consensus Mock Draft (CMD) over on the regular site.  All the baseline information in the CMD (Team Needs, Grabs, Lockouts, Player list order) is immediately propagated over to the to the Online Draft Simulator.

But if you’ve been running the ODS and have made a bunch of changes to the input screens, to get the draft just the way you want it, won’t this importing of new baseline data mess you up??

The answer is no, not right away anyway.    Please go to the ODS “Simulator Home” page by clicking on a link off the main site.  You will see two big buttons to the right of the ODS logo.  Here’s what they do:

Social Networking…a beautiful thing

Want more Drafttek?

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=24561789968

Myspace: www.myspace.com/drafttek

Twitter: http://twitter.com/DraftTek

All three are relatively easy to use sites and will be integral to making DraftTek the most personable and use-friendly experience on the Web.

Astala-Bye-Bye T.O.

 

 - Long Ball, Special Heineken Correspondent

 

I’m sure many of you have been wondering “Where was Long Ball when all this T.O. stuff was goin’ down?”  Well, if you must know, after 2 or 3 BEvERages of my buddy Jimmy Johnson’s choice (come on, you all know the song – “Here’s to good friends, tonight is kind of special . . .”), I was snoozin’ in my La-Z-Boy, only to be awakened by the news on the TV (yep, the big screen was still on!) 

 

Immediately, my razor-sharp senses said “You haven’t even gone through the hang-over yet!”, but I knew I had to review my Drafttek strategy.  However, I don’t know if a whole lot changes from a draft perspective – let’s take a look at the Cowboys’ current roster:

Vikings Offseason Update

NFL Network Fantasy Football commercial aside, TJ Houshmandzadeh has a new nickname in Vikings land… Housh Bag. 

As most of us know by now, TJ snubbed the Vikes and signed with Seattle and it is widely speculated the deal was about money.  The Vikings simply weren’t willing to offer TJ the type of money he was looking for.  For this, I applaud the Vikings brass for sticking to their guns and not overpaying for a 31 year old receiver.  On the other hand, there will be no such applause for Housh.  TJ seemed to show his true colours by playing the three teams showing interest in him – Seattle, Minnesot and Cincinnati – against each other to get what he wanted.  Good luck in Seattle TJ and make sure your listening for the “Housh bag” chants when you visit the Dome this year…

Now, for the moves that actually happened:

Acquiring Sage Rosenfels for a 4th round pick – So far, this has been the big news of the offseason.  Rosenfels is not an elite quarterback, we all know that, but he is a guy that the Vikings have targetted and I think will prove to be an upgrade over Gus Ferotte.  Sage has never played with the talent he has here in Minny and if he can make some plays and hang onto the football, which is really all the coaching staff has ever asked for from their quarterbacks, then he could be a great addition.  If he starts trying to do too much and pulls out some stupid plays like he did against Indy last year, then it could be another disappointing year for Vikings fans.   Either way, with this addition, the Vikings QB need went from P3 to P6.  Management always seems to like late round QBs for good value, if there are any. 

Re-signing Jimmy Kleinsasser – Great move.  Best blocking TE in the game and a key to our offence.  Doesn’t make a lot of catches, but always seems to come up big when he’s called upon.  Adrian and Chester are sure happy he’s back.   With his re-signing and Shiancoe and Mills in the fold, I can’t see us drafting a TE early. 

Outside of those two moves, there hasn’t been any big moves.  Minnesota has been linked to many names in the papers – Nate Washington, Michael Clayton, Chris Carr, Ray Willis, Daniel Loper, Jason Brown, Mark Tauscher – but no signings to report. 

The big news of today is Matt Birk going to the Ravens, leaving what most believe to be a big hole in the middle of our line.  Though we are currently without a proven starter at OC so far, I’m not worried.  Birk’s play deteriorated over the past couple years and I don’t think he was worth signing for the money he was probably looking for.  Chalk up another good non-signing for Childress and co. 

The big question is, where do the misses on TJ and Birk leave the Vikings in the early rounds of the draft?  Currently, I have a grab on Hakeen Nicks for round 1.  Some scouts say Nicks has similar skills to Anquan Boldin and Hines Ward – tough, strong, solid hands, reliable.  I have a feeling that the Vikings could be looking at him as well.  On the surface, WR isn’t a major need on this team, but clearly the Vikes are looking to upgrade that position and so, for now, I’m pencilling Nicks in at 22 for us.    

With all of the big name Centers being signed, I think Minnesota will look to fill this need through the draft as well.  The question is, will they reach for a guy in the first or hope one of the top prospects fall to the 2nd round or later?  I don’t think they’d reach, but it’s certainly a possibility.  Max Unger is a guy I could see us reaching for.  Unger was a Center in college, but can play 4 OL spots and Childress loves versatile lineman.  As the draft nears, you may see a grab for Unger at #22. 

 - Brett the Vikings guy

Online Draft Simulator Update – a new 7-round ODS ??

We’ve been frantically de-bugging the new ODS over the past couple weeks, and after the last few days its looking bug free.

The new ODS can be found at:

http://www.drafttek.com/new simulator

Currently, all the links on the website still point to the old ODS  simulator.  We’re still in final debug mode for ODS REV2.  But we’re confident enough in its functionality to invite users in to checkout the new model via the link above.

Another reason we’re not quite ready to do the full public release:  the documentation needs to be updated, and we’ll do that over the next few days.

Hightlights of ODS Rev2:

1) Full 7 rounds of output

2) Uses all the player positional codes from the CMD

3) User can select to use the CMD grabs and lockouts, or keep the model clean

More later . . .

Caveat Emptor, Matt Cassel Trade

Draft Tek gang. I posted this on ArrowheadAddict.com a few days ago. Since it is of general interest, I am cross posting it here.

“I look at Cassel and I think Scott Mitchell,” an unnamed NFC executive told the (Boston) Herald. “That’s who I see.”

My feelings exactly. Anyone thinking that Bill Belichick would do anyone any favors is deluding themselves. To borrow a phrase from the movie Wall Street, he would sell his own mother and send her COD.

Addicts, you keep drinking the Kool-Aid. However, ask yourselves two questions. What QB has come off the bench, had a good year then moved to another team and became a top QB? Scott Mitchell? Matt Schaub? Billy Volek? What QB has moved away from throwing to Randy Moss and done as well elsewhere? Daunte Culpepper?

When I got news of this trade, I was sick to my stomach. Vrabel? fine, we needed veteran leadership on D (and we still need more). Cassel? I am not impressed. Before this is raised in the comments, I am not buying the rumor that Belichick turned down a first-round pick from Tampa Bay. Belichick is ruthless and football is war to him. If a deal looks too good to be true, you better start counting your fingers and toes.

- Merlin, Arrowhead Addict

Quick FA Update

3/4/09

–Michael Schottey Lions/Packers/Chargers correspondent; Senior Writer

Hey everyone, happy hump day. Just a quick little update on free agency activity for the three teams I’m following. Detroit (predictably) has had the most because of the massive turnover expected with new regimes. Green Bay and San Diego have already expressed desire to stay away from big money free agents.

However, interestingly all have free agents in town today. Detroit-LJ Smith and Daniel Loper; Green Bay-Mike Adams; San Diego-Kevin Burnett

Detroit:

• Grady Jackson (DT/NT) close to signing pending physical
• LJ Smith (TE) visiting Allen Park complex today
• Daniel Loper (OT) arrived in town last night and will meet with team today
• Chris Carr (CB/KR) and Jabari Greer (CB) still mulling over offers from multiple teams
• Mike Peterson (MLB) expected to be in talks with Lions soon
• Vonnie Holliday expected to visit later this week
• Rumors have been cited connecting the Lions with JP Losman/Rex Grossman/Chris Simms

Green Bay:

• Met yesterday with Mike Adams (FS)
• Interested in Igor Olshansky (3-4 DE)
• Rumored to be in contact with Jason Taylor (DE/OLB/Phenominal Dancer)

San Diego:

• Lost out on Drayton Florence (CB) to the Bills and denied rumors that Antonio Cromartie was on the trade block
• Kevin Burnett (LB) meeting with team today
• Visit scheduled with Jermaine Phillips (SS)