Redskins Draft Predictions (After the Spending Spree)

02/28/09 – Senior Writer Scott Lilliston, Drafttek.com

Oops, they did it again!  While no one will mistake Redskins owner Daniel Snyder, or his right-hand man Vinny Cerrato, for Britney Spears, Danny and Vinny hopped into the free agent pool like two fat kids trying to see who could make the biggest splash.  With the signings of DT Albert Haynesworth, CB Deangelo Hall an OG Derrick Dockery on free agency’s opening day, it’s safe to say that they both win the cannonball contest and managed to get Aunt Sally’s plate of potato chips wet. (Hey!  She should have been standing there!)

The Skins surprised me, actually, with being able to keep Deangelo Hall.  I know he’s a local guy but, heck, the guy went all the way to Oakland to get paid, there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t have gone elsewhere for a few more green fun-tickets.  Turns out the Skins decided to overpay him for half a season’s body of work.  They do see him as a player with a lot of potential at a position of need after jettisoning the oft-injured Shawn Springs so the need to sign him can be argued.   They also used the potential signing of DT Albert Haynesworth to keep Hall in the fold. 

The Hall deal could explode on the Skins, though, and the deal itself certainly didn’t make teams trying to sign, say Dominique Foxworth, happy as it upped the ante on what free agent corners are now expecting.  The question is, can Washington’s new cast wreak as much havoc when the games begin as Vinny and Danny are in the free agent pool.   

Earlier in the year, Drafttek.com received many e-mails from fans wondering how the highest positional team need could be set at linebacker.  A study of how the Redskins have historically addressed certain positions, particularly the positions Cerrato has been successful in drafting, leads to the truth.  You want to know the future?  Sometimes you have to look to the past. 

Historically, Cerrato has not really had much success drafting skill position players.  He has been succesful at finding defensive backs, linebackers, tight ends and the occasional QB here and there in the draft.  He believes in the “best player available” mantra and mostly because he doesn’t want to be caught reaching for a first round player that turns out to be a bust.  Last year he knew he needed a wide receiver and, in fashion, he moved the Skins down and selected a few, three to be exact, pass catchers.  His thought?  Throw a handful of players at the position and one of them has to stick. 

The Skins have historically done this in the trenches as well, only they get the handful of players through free agency and mid to late-round draft picks.  There’s no shock that the Redskins boast one of the oldest offensive lines in the league.  Dockery will help them get younger and is an upgrade over Pete Kendall.  Will they draft an offensive lineman with the #13 pick overall?  Don’t count on it. 

I know what you o-line proponents are thinking…”but what if Alabama Offensive Tackle Andre Smith falls to #13?”  Harken back to Cerrato’s philosophy.  Smith’s issues off the field may hurt him, but Cerrato will be looking at other players.  (I’ll throw out a scenario later that might make the Smith pick happen.)  Mind you I’m not telling you this will be the right move.  The tape on Smith shows him to be an absolute mauler, but I foresee that the Skins will stay true to form and try to find another offensive lineman with their 3rd round pick.  Perhaps a Duke Robinson or someone similar makes it to them there.  The one thing that is clear in this draft is that it is chock full of offensive line prospects. 

The Haynesworth signing ensures that the Skins won’t be going with a defensive tackle in the 2009 draft and I think they see the injury to Jason Taylor from last year as a reason to give him a second try to see what he can do when he’s healthy.  They really want to see what he can do next to Haynesworth.

So…where does that leave us boys and girls?  You got it…the linebacking corp.  Marcus Washington is gone and H.B. Blades is not the answer at the Will backer spot.  London Fletcher is an animal but is aging and may only have a year or two left.  Sam backer, Rocky McIntosh came off a serious knee injury in 2007 to play fairly well in 2008.  He should remain there.  There is talk of the Skins diving back into the free agent pool (this time Cerrato will do a “flying squirrel” to see if he can get Uncle Harolds tupee wet) and pick up LB Angelo Crowell from the Bills.  This seems unlikely however as the Bills have trimmed their roster and have room to sign him if they want him. 

Prediction time…where the rubber meets the road.  I think Snyder and the V-man have 3 prospects in mind at the #13 spot.  Word out of the Senior Bowl was that Cerrato was highly enamored with USC MLB, Rey Maualuga.  At the scouting combine, he apparently was smitten with UT DE/OLB, Brian Orakpo and I think Cerrato would take the much maligned Andre Smith if he falls AND Maualuga and Orakpo are gone.  If all three are gone, look for the braintrust in DC to try to trade back and land a guy like James Laurinaitis or Brian Cushing.  Welcome to the offseason guys and gals…try not to get wet. 

 

Like this article?  Hate it?  Send comments to slilliston@drafttek.com or Redskins@drafttek.com.  Don’t forget to check out the online draft simulator to see how your own mock draft might shake out!

Raiders -Free Agency and the First Round

Hey Raider fans and haters alike – I’m sure you are all wondering, like I am, what the Raiders are going to do with that 7th pick and the months of free agency

Let’s look first at what are percieved to be the Raiders’ greatest needs: OT, WR (feature – Higgins is the speedy deep threat, and Chaz is growing to be a slot receiver), DE (4-3), and OLB (4-3). Now, there are other positions the Raiders would like to address, but those are the most seem to be the most pressing needs on the roster.

OT- The Raiders  have already expressed interest in two OT’s, Khalif Barnes Marvel Smith, two potential bargains in this free agent market. I believe that this is in response to the success of Jason Smith’s workout (and subsequent rising up the Big Boards everywhere). Depending on who they end up getting (Smith is 30 and spent most of the last two seasons on IR, Barnes is only 26), they could be looking at addressing the OT need later in the draft (doesn’t make too much sense to pick up a free agent and a first round pick – that first rounder should be automatically starting. If the Raiders go OT in free agency, look for them to look elsewhere for that 7th overall pick

WR – The big free agency news in this area isn’t who the Raiders are bringing in, it’s who the Raiders are keeping. No news yet on any release of Javon Walker, and if you ask me, I’d say it’s a great idea. He’s getting paid this year regardless, now I’d rather see something for that cash than a huge cap hit. Keep him, line him up at the feature wideout with Higgins on the other side and Chaz in the slot. Why, you may ask, why not – I say! Unless some top talent (Crabtree) is available at the 7th overall pick, there are other, greater areas of need that we don’t have answers for on the roster. I’ll continue to say this – there were too many injuries to fairly evaluate the WR position last year, but a great receiver will help JaMarcus Russel develop. It will just be hard to say which rookie can be that great receiver.

DE(4-3) Here is an area that I see the Raiders looking seriously at when pick #7 rolls around. Depending on who is available, I could see Orakpo or Brown getting into the silver and black. Though our current simulation doesn’t have those players available (I’ll adress that in a moment), the Raiders need someone of starting caliber to fill that need. Burgess could be on his way out, we have already cut Kalimba Edwards which could leave us with 4 DE’s on our roster – non the kind of combination edge-setting, run stopping, and pass rushing end, that we need to help shore up our D.

OLB(4-3) The Raiders recently brought back two OLB’s that started last year – Ricky Brown and John Alston, neither of whom did well in shedding blocks and being the strong-side force that we need to stop the run. There is some phenominal talent in the draft this year, but it would be quite a reach for the drafttek mock (the closest OLB4-3 is Cushing, and he would be a -8 reach).

Basically this brings me to the Raiders worst nightmare. Right now (in the drafttek mock) the Raiders face a situation where all of the players they want have already been taken. Assuming a deal is done for an OT (if not, I see the Raiders going with Oher instead of Maclin, the roster just demands more OT than it does a WR, and Maclin is very similar to Higgins), the Raiders will be looking at defense and the best player available. Now, if Orakpo and Brown are gone, I don’t know how deep the raiders will go in looking at Cushing (seeing as how they re-signed Alston and Brown). My best guess is that the Raiders pick up Raji. Now, I’m not thrilled with Raji going to us, we already have Tommy Kelley, and Terdell Sands. I also feel that a lot of Raji’s success comes from Ron Brace handling double and triple teams. But, Raji is better against the run than Kelley, and better against the pass than Sands, so I won’t complain too much, I would love for the Raiders to address other, more pressing needs.

Who do you think the Raiders will go with at #7?

-Tim, your Raider’s Team analyst

Commissioner Goodell’s 20%

Rick  McGlothlin, Drafttek.com Senior Writer

Roger Goodell has announced he is taking a 20% reduction in his salary in order to off-set the current economic problems facing companies throughout the U.S., including his own – the National Football League. Although the move might seem rather nice of the commish, he earns a mere $11 million overall in a single year, with bonuses. So that means instead of the potential $11 million he would have made, he’s willing to try and struggle through an entire year on a paltry $9 million, give or take a few bucks.

You know what REALLY would’ve been super-cool for the Commish to do? In order to show how concerned (and serious) he was about the state of the economy and how it is impacting his own employees and that of the rest of the nation, he could’ve taken that 20% and used it to keep the employees he already laid off. Perhaps he has done so, although I haven’t heard that was the case. If he did so, bravo! If not, he should’ve used that 20% and kept his employees for as long as he could and added another 20%.

After all, this is the highest revenue generating business in the U.S. (other than oil companies and political lobbyists) and I think the commish MIGHT be able to get by on a measely $5 mil a year for doing something he has states is his passion and love. Tell ya what Commish, you give me $50k a year and I’ll pinch-hit for you, and you can just sit back and answer the phones for the other $5 million in salary. And you can still have the final say in all matters, do all the TV public relations stuff and even go to the Super Bow. I’ll just hang back and do the grunt work.

How many other execs in the NFL have offered up a 20% reduction in salary in order to help keep those other 1,100 staff members to keep their jobs? More importantly, how many franchises in the NFL have lowered ticket prices in order to keep season-ticket holders in the seats they have held for many, many years, rather than losing them to the current economic crisis? My guess is that THEIR bonuses are more important than the life-long fans that made them all that money in the first place. Not to mention that the corporate fatcats or ticket brokers will now race up to the recently relinquished tickets like hyenas swarming onto a dead carcas.

So thanks for the gesture Commish – but it comes off as a rather lame attempt at convincing the average football fan that you want to help in some small way. Why don’t you take the 20% and buy tickets for some fan(s) who have lost their season tickets due to a layoff or debilitating health crisis that sucked their savings away? Or why not fund some youngster whose parents can’t afford to buy their kid(s) some new school shoes, socks or shirts – or even books – to get to school. Or peel off a few Benjamins for a student who needs help with a student loan for college? Or use it on kids for the upcoming Christmas holiday – which is certainly going to be a rather bleak one for many families, in terms of the ability to put some gifts under the tree on Christmas morning.

Again, it’s nice the Commissioner made the decision to cut his salary and freeze all others. But that’s not pain…which is what millions of Americans are feeling every single day. Many of them are life-long football fans who have supported the team they love, and in turn, made the NFL millions. One would think that in the seriously harsh economic times we face these days, a little more would be done to repay that support.

It’s just a thought Mr. Goodell.

Online Draft Simulator REV2

Last Thursday our contractor delivered Revision 2 of the Online Draft Simulator.   We kicked the tires over the weekend, and found that it works flawlessly, just some minor issues to be cleaned up before a formal release.  Thats not to say that some issues wont arise over the next several days.

We’re not formally linking to the new ODS out in the Drafttek web site just yet, but for those of you interested in a sneak preview, here’s the link:

http://www.drafttek.com/new simulator

Here are some of the feature of Rev 2:

Quickie Update – Big Uglies

Jason Smith of Baylor had 33 reps of 225 lbs. at the combine — the other top-rated OT’s had 25 or less (NFL Network showed a kicker that had 25 reps!).  Louis Vasquez tied for the OL lead with 39 reps.  Bench press is only one of many indicators — the OL drills tomorrow should be interesting.

The Big Ugly Hisself,

Long Ball

Arizona Cardinals Team Needs

 

- Long Ball, Honorary Drafttek Old Fogey

 

Can the Arizona Cardinals cope with the weight of prosperity after a gallant showing in Super Bowl XLIII?  There have already been organizational changes that will impact the team during the off-season and affect their free agency and draft strategies.  With a change in defensive coordinator, the Cards may run a 3-4 base defensive scheme, after utilizing a 4-3 hybrid formation last year.  Todd Haley is the head man at Kansas City, Kurt Warner is contemplating retirement, Anquan Boldin wants to be traded, Matt Leinart is planning a party – well, maybe not.  Grab your mouse, click below and let’s break down the roster together.

Rams Trade Torry Holt – What If Scenario

Our Bears correspondent and I worked for several days ironing out the details of this trade.  Basically I wanted to give him Holt and our #35 for the #18 overall and he wanted to add Vasher and receive the #35, #66 and #99 in the deal.  Eventually we settled on Holt, the Rams 2nd and 3rd for Vasher and the Bears #18 overall.   

Any Ram fans out there feel free to comment or email rams@drafttek.com to discuss or just let me know how you feel about this trade. 

Here is my take on the deal:

The Rams have a ton of needs, starting at Offensive Line and going thru to the Secondary.  This deal allows the Rams to trade Holt with value in return filling a need at corner and getting a 2nd Top 20 pick in the draft.

Nathan Vasher was  a Pro Bowl corner in his 2nd season in the league, 2005.  He had a left hand injury keep him out for half of 2008 which is minor and was considered before the trade was finalized. 

The #18 pick was the important piece of this trade.  My hope was to get James Laurinaitis with this pick but in our draft he was gone and in his place is Jeremy Maclin, arguably a better prospect and with Holt gone possibly a bigger need.  Sometimes  not getting what you want turns out better than if you had. 

The #35 pick would not have landed a guaranteed starter at WR or ILB, which are the Rams top 2 needs after Offensive Tackle in my opinion.  Throwing in the 3rd round pick for a corner who can step right in and give us Pro Bowl quality starts is not a bad addition. 

Overall I believe this trade majorly upgrades the talent on the team and giving up Torry Holt – already being phased out of the offense – and a couple of picks outside the 1st round makes it pretty sweet for new coach Steve Spagnuolo and GM Billy Devaney.

Robert Occhipinti – Rams Drafttek Correspondent

Bengals Team Needs

Well what can we say Bengals fans, another long seaon and an even longer offseason in Bengaldom. There have been many discussions on here as to what we think our Bengals should be focusing on this offseason. Lets take a look at some of the offseason needs and break them down.

Dallas Cowboys Team Needs

Submitted by:  Long Ball

 

Wheeler-Dealer Jerry Jones enters the 2009 NFL Draft without a 1^st round selection; however, he has in his hip pocket 9 selections (before compensation picks) in rounds 2 through 7 to use as trade bait.  Despite the disappointing ending to last season, the Cowboys possess a talented roster that has few major holes.  In order to forecast what positions they may target for the draft, one must first anticipate roster losses via free agency or trade, project what shortcomings will be filled with veterans through those same sources and then decide where youth may be served.  Are you ready to ride this roller-coaster with me – if so, then click below and climb on board!

Hybrid? Isn’t that a golf club?

Ah yes, the conversion of a 4-3 DE into a 3-4 OLB – and I will concur that Everette Brown and Brian Orakpo should be able to stand on their own two feet just fine, thank you.  But let’s take a look at some of the other prospects that may not be as well known.

 

First things first – just because a 4-3 DE is smaller than some of his counterparts and has a pretty good 40 time does not necessarily mean he can successfully make the transition.  Not only will a 3-4 OLB have pass rush responsibilities, but he must also be “fluid in the hips” to be able to run and cover backs in the flat, as well as short to intermediate passes.  He must also be able to utilize leverage in fighting off blocks standing up, as opposed to a 3 point stance.  Anticipation is another attribute that will be required to play the position.

 

Michael Johnson of Georgia Tech, despite carrying 258 lbs. on a 6’7” frame, may indeed have the athleticism to play OLB.  He is forecast as a late 1^st/early 2^nd prospect – NFL Draft Scout is convinced his length, agility, hands and speed (both straight-line and lateral) will allow him to play the position.  However, with his frame, if he continues to put on weight, he may play with his hand on the ground.

 

Paul Kruger of Utah is another outstanding athlete, a rare combination of size (6’5”, 265 lbs.) and speed (4.68).  He, like Johnson, may fill out and play with his hand on the ground; however he is 23, having served two years on LDS mission.  According to NFL Draft Scout: “Effective playing upright as a 3-4 rush linebacker due to his length, hustle and athleticism … Handles coverage responsibilities well, staying with backs in the flat and on wheel routes … Breaks down and drops his hips in space better than you would expect for his size.”

 

Connor Barwin of Cincinnati is an interesting prospect, as he was the leading TE for the Bearcats in 2007 before switching to defense, and also played power forward on the basketball team as a walk-on.  “Tight end speed … defender mentality … physical at point of attack … relentless in pursuit … very coachable because of his intelligence, work ethic and motor … a special teams ace since his freshman year, blocked 3 punts in 2008” – pretty strong praise from NFL Draft Scout.

You heard me brag enough on Mitch King’s motor during the 4-3 DE blog – just know that this Hawkeye is another OLB candidate.

 

As far as candidates available in Day Two of the draft, Lawrence Sidbury, Jr. of Richmond is an explosive pass rusher, with the flexibility and lateral speed to play OLB.  Phillip Hunt of Houston played DE, DT, OLB and ILB for the Cougars – he may struggle some in space, but is a powerful pass rusher.  Orion Martin of Virginia Tech is a former walk-on that earned all-conference selection his last two years – a true “lunch-pail player who makes most of his plays with hustle, not superior athleticism.” (NFL Draft Scout)

 

If you’re looking for a couple of “sleepers” with speed to burn in the late rounds, Will Davis of Illinois is a former WR and then TE, who had 9.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for losses as a junior; likewise, Julius Williams of Connecticut had 8.5 sacks and 12 tackles for losses the same year.

 

There are also OLB prospects from a 4-3 scheme that can play in a 3-4 scheme:  Aaron Maybin (Penn State), Clay Matthews (USC), Clint Sintim (Virginia), Cody Brown (UConn), Jason Williams (Western Illinois), Johnny Williams (Kentucky), and Slade Norris (Oregon State).  However, since this is the “Big Uglies” series, I decided to concentrate on 4-3 DE conversions.

 

Well folks, this concludes my blogs on the less glamorous positions in football – I certainly hope you have enjoyed them, and more importantly, learned a little more about some of the prospects in this year’s draft.

 

The Big Ugly Hisself,

Long Ball