So, do the Oakland Raiders have a new coach?

Well, yes and no. Yes in the sense of Tom Cable having some level of input as the rest of the “assistant” staff is assembled, yes in the sense of Tom Cable being out in Mobile doing the scouting for the Senior Bowl, and yes in the sense of no other candidate being named – but the glaring “NO” comes in because it isn’t official yet. Michael Smith broke the story, but as far as I know, only ESPN seems to be airing it lightly. The NFL network hasn’t, because the Raiders haven’t made it official. Cable has no contract, and is essentially working “for free” at this point.

While it seems insane (and annoying) that they don’t just go ahead and name Cable the head coach, there is a benefit to it. Al has done this in the past, naming Bill Callahan the “captain of the coaches” during the period after Gruden’s firing. This allows Al to continue to get a look at how Cable operates, before making the final decision. And, quite possibly, Al just wants to wait until after the Super Bowl, so that his hire can receive the proper media attention. I’m not saying that it is right, just trying to provide those outside of the Raider Nation with a glimpse into the logic (and yes, there is some bit of logic) that is behind this decision process.

There are other possible reasons for this waiting. Al could be holding this decision off to interview another candidate, Todd Haley. Depending on how Haley’s offense does against the Steelers stout D, he could bring Haley in for an interview. It’s possible that Al wants to see what all the buzz is about, and you know Al would love to be able to put up Cardinal-style-numbers (wow, never thought I’d be saying that phrase).

Regardless of the reason, it is difficult to assess the offensive and defensive future of the Raiders, without knowing their head coach. There will be some truths that are apparent already. JaMarcus Russell can’t throw the ball without adequate protection or adequate receivers. The Raiders will always run as much man-to-man coverage on the corners, with rarely more than 4 defenders providing the rush. But beyond that, questions arise of switching to a 3-4 base defense, keeping the zone-blocking scheme, is our offense going to be mostly ball control/time of possession or will we switch to a high scoring threat?

Once the Raiders settle on a coach, I’ll give a more in depth draft outlook for all of you who (myself included), like my DraftTek colleague Joseph Mays put it, are eagerly counting down the 87 days till draft time.

Tim Hudson, Oakland Raiders Team Analyst

2009 Miami Dolphins Draft Preview

The Dolphins, despite one of the greatest turnarounds in NFL history, were a bit overshadowed in 2009.  Apparently winning 10 more games than the previous season – something only one other team, the 1999 Colts, has done – and taking the AFC East crown isn’t as important or noticeable as a vastly overrated Brett Favre in New York or rookie QB’s (Matt Ryan of Atlanta and Joe Flacco of Baltimore) bringing their franchises to respectability.  Oh well.  No harm, no foul I guess.  But this remarkable turnaround has created an interesting dilemma for a Dolphins franchise getting ready to enter Year 2 of the Parcells-Ireland-Sparano regime.  Miami vastly improved in 2008 but was aided by some luck, as pointed out here.  Part of that luck – the easy schedule – will change in 2009.  While it’s almost impossible at this point to predict what teams will and won’t be good next season it’s pretty obvious that a slate of games containing Houston (a team Miami has never defeated), Indianapolis (‘08 playoff team), Pittsburgh (Super Bowl Champs?), New Orleans (crazy offense), Tampa Bay (stout defense), Jacksonville (‘08 underachievers), Tennessee (stout defense II), San Diego (better than their ‘08 record), Atlanta (up-and-comers), and Carolina (‘08 playoff team) is more difficult than facing each conference’s West Division (even though Arizona made the Super Bowl).  Does Miami have the talent to repeat their 2008 season in ‘09?  As of now I say no, and it all comes back to personnel.

Center of Attention

Center and left tackle are the most difficult positions to play in the NFL – left tackle due to protecting the QB’s blind-side and often engaged with the opposing team’s best pass rusher and center due to reading the defense and calling the blocking assignments.  The top 3 centers in this year’s draft have attributes that would make them interesting prospects, depending on a team’s particular needs:

 

1)     Alex Mack of California is currently the top-rated center, but nip-and-tuck in the overall ratings with Center #2.  Mack’s forte’ is strength, as evidenced by his Senior Bowl workouts – two times in a row, he stonewalled B.J. Raji, the #1 rated DT on the Big Board, in one-on-one drills.  However, he needs to work on his footwork and overall quickness – right after his success against Raji, Mitch King (undersized DE from Iowa) blew right by him twice in the same drill.

2)     Max Unger of Oregon is considered a “5 position” OL prospect, having played all positions on the OL in college.  This is the reason he is ranked right with Mack, as it would be a luxury for a team to have a utility lineman to plug in at any position.  Quite frankly, Unger is probably not a long-term solution at LT and it may be unrealistic to expect a rookie to learn all 5 positions right away; however, think of Bruce Matthews (Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans) with less athleticism.

3)     Jonathan Luigs of Arkansas may be the most athletic of this year’s center prospects – the explosion generated by his lower body and quickness to get to the second level may make him the best long-term pro.  Luigs will have to be “coached up”, as he has technique issues, but most can be resolved through drill repetition.

 

These 3 prospects are ranked from 39 to 61 on the Big Board, which probably puts them in the 2^nd round, but with a chance to sneak into the 1^st depending on a team’s needs.  New England might take a flyer on Unger at the end of the 1^st round, as they place a premium on versatility.

 

My next post will concentrate on DL prospects; however, as further information becomes available, we may re-visit the OL.

 

The Big Ugly Hisself,

Long Ball

The Big Uglies – Chapter 2

There are 4 outstanding OT’s in this year’s draft (Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, Jason Smith and Michael Oher) worthy of a 1^st round grade – and #5 (Eben Britton) is rapidly gaining ground.  However, one of the secrets to a successful draft is projecting the potential of mid to late round draft choices, and in the case of OL, this could be a 2-3 year developmental period.

 

Residing in the southwest, I had the opportunity to view many Oklahoma games and watched their prolific scoring offense.  Against lesser competition, Phil Loadholt was able to overpower his opponents with sheer mass (6’8”, 343 lbs) and strength; however, when matched against quality defenses, his weaknesses were exposed, just as they were during the Senior Bowl practices:

 

Ø      Leverage – As with most tall lineman, Loadholt does not utilize his legs and rear-end, too often bending at the waist in an attempt to maintain blocking leverage.

Ø      Footwork – Fundamentally unsound, as he does not use short, choppy steps to maintain balance; instead, his long legs get him in trouble, allowing speed rushers to gain an advantage.

Ø      Laziness – Loadholt’s ample wingspan is an advantage if he gets a hold within the pad restrictions; however, those long arms are obvious in holding penalties (including many that were not called based on his reputation).

 

Phil Loadholt has many bad habits that will have to be corrected for him to even succeed as a right tackle – he is not left tackle material.  He is the #8 OT in this year’s draft, currently #53 on the Big Board which would require a 2^nd or 3^rd round draft choice.  A team looking for a big right tackle to develop can get more bang for their buck later in the draft in the person of Alex Boone of Ohio State (6’8”, 330 lbs).  Boone is the #12 OT in this year’s draft, currently #107 on the Big Board which projects to the 4^th round, a much better investment.

 

Are you anticipating the snap count?  My next post will cover centers.

 

The Big Ugly Hisself,

Long Ball

Spotlight On: Kraig Urbick

Yes, it is time to talk about “The Big Uglies”!  This big, bad Badger has been moving up the Big Board, currently ranked as the #3 OG – a late 2nd/early 3rd round choice.  I spent some time grading the offensive and defensive line prospects during the drills that were televised on NFL Network.  Mr. Urbick maintained excellent leverage with his legs during blocking drills (no small feat, considering he is 6′6″) and stonewalled B.J. Raji, the #1 DT on our board.  He is a battler and I would not be surprised to see him leapfrog both Herman Johnson (LSU) and Duke Robinson (OU); even if he does not surpass them on draft day, I believe he will be a better pro than either of them.

Interesting information?  Give me your feedback and then I’ll tell you why you should steer clear of Phil Loadholt.

The Big Ugly Hisself,

Long Ball

A Flash From The Past — or — Back To The Future?

Dateline:  January 26, 2009

Chris Mortensen is reporting that Dan Reeves told the San Francisco 49′ers during his interview for Offensive Coordinator that he is taking a consultant’s role with the Dallas Cowboys.  We all know about Chris’s “sources”, but here is the ESPN link for the Missouri Natives amongst our readership:  http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3863021

Wade Phillips was on Reeves’ staffs at both Denver and Atlanta — does Captain Kangaroo want Mr. Greenjeans looking over his shoulder?  Stay tuned sports fans!

Long Ball

Notes on Consensus Draft Rev 8

Draft Tek releases it’s 8th revision of the 2009 NFL draft.  Some rumblings from the bench:

Detroit #1: Although many mock out there call for Detroit to go with Matt Stafford, our Detroit guy is holding firm that the Lions will need protection for their franchise QB and an OT makes more sense.  The OT de jour is Andre Smith.

St Louis #2: Robert, the Drafttek Rams analyst flipped the Rams primary need this week to WR from OT.  If not just to give the Consensus mock a new look.  The Rams could go either way, at this point in time.

Seattle #4: There are not many starter level needs for Seattle, but WR has been tagged as the highest priority at P2.  With Crabtree take by the Rams, Seattle faces the choice of reaching steeply for RB Moreno or WR Maclin, or going value and filling a “depth” need at OT.  They’d like to trade down, but it’s hard to find takers for the #4 overall.  But Jacksonville or San Francisco could be willing to trade in order to grab one of the elite OTs.

Seattle #37: Do the Seahawks tab WR Juaquin Iglesias (the #49 rated player) here or the top OC in the draft Max Unger.  Or RB Shonn Greene (the #39 rated player).  DraftSim say Unger, but realistically they could go in any of the 3 direction, as WR continues to be the highest need.

Oakland #7: The Raiders switch to OT as top priority this week, and land the final of the big-time OT’s in Jason Smith.   But Clevelad or Seattle (see above) may be persuaded to trade down and grab Smith.  The Raiders probably wouldn’t mind settling for Orakpo at DE.

Buffalo #11: Given the needs that Dean (Bills Drafttek Correspondent) supplied for Buffalo, their was no good choice.  Previous pick Brandon Pettigrew has been downgraded to the #27 player – quite  a reach at #11.  Buffalo perhaps could persuade JAX to flip 1st rounders, and get Orakpo if he’s still there.  If not, they really must look to trade down.  A CB needy team such as the Jets  might be looking to leapfrog New Orleand and Washington – others of the CB challenged brigade.  Their target is great value Malcolm Jenkins.  But given no takers, the Bills are forced to reach for their P1 need DE Michael Johnson, the  #24 rated player on out board.  OLB Brian Cushing also figures to be a target for them.

Submitted by: Warren Hauck

Drafttek Lead Programmer/Analyst

DE Kruger: Late First, Early Second

–Dean Kindig, Bills Correspondent

Utah’s defensive end Paul Kruger will be 24 by draft day, but a redshirt sophomore who had 2 more years of eligibility. Kruger spent a year on a Latter-Day Saints mission. DraftTek has Kruger going after Orakpo and Johnson in the latest Mock, to Detroit at RD1#20, along with Eugene Monroe at RD1#1.  Kruger is similar in size to Tyson Jackson (6′5 265 lbs.). You may have remembered #11 having a just-average game against Alabama. Playing against the RT (not Andre Smith), Kruger notched 5 tackles and 1 TFL, but he was double-covered often. This helped allow his teammates to log 8 sacks in that game. On the year Kruger had 7.5 sacks and 16.5 TFL. He added 61 tackles from the DE position (and consistent with the 63 in 2007 when he was 2nd in the nation among freshmen). Kruger had the 2nd most TFL’s in the Mountain West this year with 15.5 and ranked third in the conference with 7 1/2 sacks. He notched an interception (which he returned 30 yards), 9 pass breakups (impressive), two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery.   His best 40 time is 4.59, but he’s in Lauderdale now, training for the combine.

One NFL insider says about his inexperience:  “He’s ready. He’s the kind of player NFL teams dream about. He’s got the talent and he’s got the mentality, too. He’s known as a good guy.” There’s that character piece.

His age, inexperience and the fact that Kruger has one kidney (car accident) are two knocks against him. Also, Kruger was stabbed a year and one week ago– twice in the area of his ribs and abdomen and the wound was close to his lung. He made a full recovery and posted these great stats. 

DraftSim program – New P code?

Drafttek.com lead programmer Warren Hauck here.  Pondering a new “P code”.  To review some existing codes and their meanings:

If one of our correspondents codes a position as P2, that means:

2 (or P2) – PP’s designated with P2 indicate that the that the team is in great need of starting calliber talent and will reach to fill the need. The reach isn’t quite as great as P1. There can be multiple P2’s identified per team.

A P3 OTOH means:

3 (P3) – PP’s (Player Positions) designated with P3 indicate that the team is in need of starting caliber talent, but will not reach for it. Some teams use a “best available player” draft discipline, this fits the P3 code well.

Watch For Bills to trade down, take DE

–Dean Kindig, Bills Correspondent, DraftTek

 

The Bills are in a great spot at #11 in the 2009 Draft, only 91 Days away for those counting. If they look at the available free agents, they will notice that the weak spot is DE. There are some good experienced Tight Ends on the Free Agent market, which I believe sways the Bills to look at Defensive End with their First Rounder.The Bills can hope to get Texas DE Brian Orakpo there, but he’d have to get past Cincinnati and Oakland at 6 and 7. Cincinnati’s needs almost replicate ours in this draft, and they could be an annoyance all day. One hopes they trade down and/or take an OT, RB Knowshon Moreno with their first pick.

If Orakpo is gone, Tyson Jackson of LSU would be attractive, but he’d be there later on in Round 1. It’s usually hard finding a trade partner, but Minnesota needs a QB, and at #11 they could leapfrog the Jets and take Matt Stafford or Mark Sanchez. Minnesota picks at #22. A drop from #11 to #22 nets the Bills a player like DE’s Jackson, Paul Kruger from Utah or Michael Johnson from Georgia, as well as a second round pick. I ran this through the www.DraftTek.com Simulator, and we took DE Kruger at #22, followed by TE Chase Coffman at #42 and OC Alex Mack at #54.